Know the strike rates of all the parties in the current election

When several exit polls for the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls were announced, Mahagathbandhan comprising RJD, Congress and left parties were happy to know that they are likely to win the election. Understanding Bihar is very difficult, we saw it during the 2015 assembly elections when the exit poll showed a clear majority for NDA but Mahagathbandhan won. The same mistake is being seen in the 2020 elections as predictions of almost all the news channels and agencies have gone wrong.

While the exit polls showed a clear majority for RJD+, the elections trends are showing a clear majority for NDA. The numbers have been fluctuating to 130 for NDA and 100 to Mahagathbandhan. BJP seems to be emerging as the single largest party as they are leading on 75 seats, followed by RJD on 63 seats, JDU on 49 seats and Congress on 20 seats.

The theory which was doing rounds that BJP has fielded LJP to contest election separately seems to have worked for the BJP as they have a lead of almost 25 seats on their ally Nitish Kumar’s JDU. Now, BJP would have the power to negotiate the powerful portfolios, CM’s post and others. LJP themselves might not have won many seats but they have definitely dented the strength of JDU in Bihar.

How Congress failed Tejashwi?

On the other hand, Congress, which contested on 70 seats are leading only on 20 seats. The strike rate is as low as 28 per cent for the Congress. Had they been leading in 40+ seats they would have been in a position to form the government. Mahagathbandhan’s CM candidate Tejashwi would have become the youngest CM, had Congress performed a little better.

In the 2015 elections, Congress had won 27 seats of the 41 seats that they had contested, a strike of more than 64 per cent. RJD had won 80 seats of 101 seats, a strike rate of 80 per cent, JDU 71 seats of 101 seats, a strike rate of 70 per cent, BJP 53 seats of 157, a strike rate of 33 per cent.

The leads in the Bihar elections 2020 so far suggest that BJP’s strike rate is somewhere between 67 per cent, JDU has 46 per cent, RJD has 46 per cent and Congress has 28 per cent.

Tejashwi would definitely look back to the day when he gave 70 seats to Congress as a mistake. The dismal performance of Congress continues to sink the image of Congress as a National Party.

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