Understand the equation where BJP can make government without JDU’s help

Bihar Assembly polls have been announced. Political parties are gearing up to announce their candidates for the polls. The 2020 Bihar election is still a month away, but political heat has already started to roll in the state.

Vaishali, Bihar is believed to be the world’s first-ever republic. The political knowledge in the state is so enriched that even a tea seller can give you many insights about the ongoing politics. People of Bihar have a strong understanding of politics, yet they have not been able to break the shackles of caste factor in the election. Along with the caste factor, people are given money in exchange for votes.

Major parties in Bihar

There are basically two fronts in Bihar, NDA and the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan). National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has Janta Dal United (JDU), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustani Aawam Morcha (HAM). The Grand Alliance has Rashtriya Janta Dal and Indian National Congress. Experts believe that there are three major political parties- BJP, JDU and RJD. When two of these parties come together, they have a very good chance of winning the election. Currently BJP and JDU are together.

Seat Distribution

There is a major crisis in both the alliances. JDU is under the leadership of Nitish Kumar who has been the CM of the state for 15 years. LJP’s President, Chirag Paswan (son of Union Minister, Ram Vilas Paswan) has targeted Nitish Kumar on several occasions in the last 2 years, indicating a rift in the NDA. BJP has not taken any side so far in the war of JDU and LJP.

There are 243 assembly seats in Bihar. As per the sources, JDU has been demanding 115 seats in the upcoming election from BJP and wants BJP to accommodate HAM and LJP in the rest 128. On the other hand, BJP wants to give least of the seats to JDU so that they cannot win a lot of seats as it will help BJP in the situation of a split. If JDU is reduced to a lesser number of seats to contest, they won’t be able to win a lot of seats.

For example – If JDU contests on 100 seats, they can win 70 to 80, if they contest on 115, they can win 85 to 95. The majority mark in Bihar is 122. Experts believe that BJP is secretly plotting against the JDU by encouraging LJP to leave the NDA alliance and contest on all seats. Chirag Paswan, the young leader, if contests on all 243 seats and manages to win 30 to 40 seats, and BJP manages to win 80 to 90 seats, then BJP can have a chance to ditch JDU and form the government with LJP. BJP, who has been playing second fiddle since 15 years, would be able to push its own party member to become the CM of the state.

LJP – The Bumrah of Superover

Like in cricket, the super over decides the winner after the match, experts think that LJP could be the Bumrah of super over who will win the match for BJP in the post-poll alliance scenario. This could also help the LJP’s Chirag Paswan to stake a claim as the deputy chief minister’s seat.

On the other hand, Congress and Rashtriya Janta Dal are yet to decide on the number of seats they want to contest.

Although politics is about uncertainty, the current situation says that NDA will be able to return to power and Nitish Kumar will take oath as the CM for the fourth consecutive term.

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