Water as a Weapon: Rising Tensions Between India and Pakistan Over the Indus Treaty
The Indus Treaty is on hold as India asserts control. Could water become the next major conflict point between India and Pakistan? The threat is real.
Water Becomes the New Battlefield: India and Pakistan Clash Over the Indus Treaty Amid Growing Regional Tensions
The time-honored Indus Treaty between India and Pakistan is now hanging by a thread, with both nations standing on water as their new battlefield. Waters of anxiety were lowered by constant harangues from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Pakistan would not receive any water due to India, thereby virtually declaring that the Indus Treaty made in 1960 is now dead. Such defiance has now shaken Pakistan from within, raising the specter of a new water war.
Under the treaty, the World Bank-brokered agreement, while Pakistan was awarded the right to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, India would keep rights over Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers. Amidst increasing insecurity about the treaty, many—including largely illegal thinkers in India—are now trying to portray the treaty as an unfair deal. In the past few decades since the Kargil War, Uri, and Pulwama incidents, India had already entertained discussions regarding the cancellation of the Indus Treaty. After this recent sutra of the Pahalgam terror attacks, India says, Enough is enough!
Pakistan’s top military spokesman DG ISPR and currently Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, recently warned India with threatening words echoing that of terrorist Hafiz Saeed—if India chokes their rivers, they will choke India’s breath. Senator Syed Ali Zafar of Pakistan even I conceded that 75 percent of the water supply of the country depended on the Indus Basin—recognizing that stoppage of the supply could lead to starvation of the masses.
While violent conflicts have always marred India-Pakistan relations, this time survival takes on a new, vital dimension. The Indus Waters Treaty to them is not merely a political deal; to them it is a lifeline. It is with the rivers of the Indus system that irrigation and agriculture infrastructure almost 90 percent of Pakistan is sustained. These very rivers are now being used as a bargaining tool.
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PM Modi has declared that water and blood can’t flow together. Until Pakistan demonstrates real and credible action against terrorism, the treaty will stay suspended indefinitely, thus proclaiming that for all practical purposes, the treaty is dead.
India’s infrastructure along the western rivers is rapidly evolving. Although running projects like Kishanganga and Ratle provide near zero storage, India is, in fact, building up its strategic control. Dams like Pakal Dul, built on a Chenab tributary in Kishtwar, are expected to turn water dynamics in a significant way. Pakal Dul, at 167 meters, will be India’s first storage dam on these rivers and is expected to be completed by 2026.
India has diverted water through the Kishanganga tunnel and is accelerating other uses of hydroelectricity. The Ratle Hydro Electric Project has recently proceeded to divert the Chenab River—one of the few projects raised so far countering objections from Pakistan. With such significant projects past their blockade, India does not need to bother too much about Pakistani protests.
Pakistan has also sent letters to India and has attempted to internationalize the issue, calling India’s actions an “act of war.” The Pakistani Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto, went the extra mile, saying, “Either our water or their blood will flow in the Indus.” Dramatic as it was, it expresses the desperation of a nation dependent on a treaty that does not work anymore.
India, however, is playing for the long term. India has clearly mentioned that while the international community may pose some concern, its actions are based on developing geographical and demographic realities. Regular flushing of dams and building of newer reservoirs have upset imports of regular flow into Pakistan; this is, however, just a hint of what water diplomacy—or maybe war—will look like in the future.
As India thus progresses toward hydro-strategic energy control, the fate of the Indus Treaty is sealed; it becomes a relic of the past. This fear of Pakistan becomes an actuality, and the few months ahead will determine whether the subcontinent further creeps toward yet another full-blown crisis over water.
With Operation Sindoor still suspended and national emotions at a high, water could well become the new weapon in the long-standing hostility between India and Pakistan.
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