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COVID-19: Has India Reached the COVID-19 peak?

Arguments of both sides if India has achieved COVID-19 peak or not?

Despite seeing more than 80,000 thousand cases every day, many of us have no idea, if we have attained the coronavirus peak. The recovery rate in India has crossed 77 % in India as per the latest data from the official website of the Ministry of Family and Health Welfare, Government of India. According to the State Bank of India analysis, India has hit a peak based on the rising recovery data.

The SBI has earlier estimated that India will reach its peak when the recovery rate touches 75 % based on the trends of other countries. Malaysia reached its peak when the recovery rate was 79.5 % in the country, Brazil achieved it at 69.9 %, China (71.5), Iran (77.6), Chile (70.4), Saudi Arabia (64.9), Bahrain (77.1). India has already crossed the 75 % recovery rate and stands at more than 77 % recovery rate currently.

The recovery rate of India has been getting better steadily in the last few weeks. It was 52.8 % on June 17, 63.24 % on July 16, 74.30 % on August 21, and now it is 77.32.

Read more: Can mosquitoes spread COVID-19 infection from one person to another?

Experts say we are still away from achieving peak

However, the Indian Public Health Organization (IPHA) believes that the country is still some distance away from the attaining peak. IPHA consisting of India’s premier public health experts was set up in April to advise the government of India on its strategy to deal with the deadly COVID-19. The team had said a week back that 30 % of the daily cases and about 20 % of daily global deaths are occurring in India.

Their findings said that with more than 7,00,000 active cases and the effective reproduction number being 1.06 till August 16, we are still away from the coronavirus peak in the country.

Community Transmission yet?

One another major finding of IPHA said that the COVID-19 cases are now being reported from small towns and cities indicating that the virus has reached the community transmission phase. It is to be noted that the ICME has kept resisting acknowledging the community transmission in India.

Randeep Guleria, in the second week of August, had said that it would be wrong to say that India has hit coronavirus peak. He is one of the leading medical experts in the country and also a member of the Union government’s core team monitoring the global pandemic COVID-19.

The total number of COVID-19 cases in India is 42,04,613 in which active cases are 8,82,542. Around 32,50,429 people have recovered from the infection, while 71,642 have succumbed to death. The recovery rate is 77,32 % and the death rate is 1.72 %.

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