The Russia and Ukraine crisis might affect India’s economy and Indo-Pacific strategy
The tension between Russia and Ukraine intensifies and the world fears if Putin is planning to invade Ukraine soon. The conflict between the two nations develops even stronger as China and the US jump in between. Though Putin’s intention of invading Ukraine is very unclear, the US and Ukraine officials claim deployment of over 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s border.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied planning an attack, but the US president Joe Biden warned of a possible invasion on Ukraine and seeks an open UN Security Council meeting to discuss the crisis. The Russia Ukraine crisis reached the highest in years and questions if the Russian troops are getting ready for a war in Ukraine.
Russia Ukraine issue
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine started in November 2013 after Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych suspended the agreement with the European Union reportedly under pressure from Russia. The political and trade deal was to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union.
In September 2013, Russia warned Ukraine against their planned agreement for free trade with the European Union. In November 2013, Ukraine suffered from massive protests after Yanukovych refused to sign the free trade agreement with the EU. The protests turned violent and caused several deaths of civilians and police. On February 22, 2014, Yanukovych signed an agreement with the leaders of the parliamentary opposition early elections and the formation of an interim unity government.
On the same day, Yanukovych fled Ukraine’s capital Kyiv after he was relieved of duty in a 328-to-0 vote. Yanukovych called the votes illegal and asked for assistance from the Russian Federation. In response to that, Russia called the vote an illegal coup and refused to recognize the interim government. The overthrow of Yanukovych invited fresh protests in the southern and Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine, resulting in Russian troops invading Ukraine’s Crimea region.
The 2021-22 Russia Ukraine crisis started after Russia in March 2021, amassed around 100,000 troops and military equipment near the Ukraine border. The satellite images monitored the movements of troops, armours, and missiles. Following the year in June, the Russian troops were reportedly removed from the borders in small numbers. The tension escalated again in December after Russia sent over 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. Russia started moving its troops into Belarus for a joint military exercise in February. After closely monitoring the situation, US President Joe Biden had warned of a possible Russian invasion and recently sent the first of the 2,000-unit of US troops in Poland.
“President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February,” said Emily Horne, White House National Security Council Spokesperson.
(1/2) These are the first of 2,000 #Soldiers to arrive in #Europe following @DeptofDefense's announcement of additional forces moving from the U.S. to #Europe in support of our @NATO #Allies.
🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇵🇱 #StrongerTogether #WeAreNATO @US_EUCOM @USArmy pic.twitter.com/nk0GPHiqwc— U.S. Army Europe and Africa (@USArmyEURAF) February 4, 2022
Why is Russia threatening Ukraine?
Ukraine gained its independence in 1991 after the dissolution of the USSR. Even after being an independent nation, Russia considers Ukraine as a part of its Sphere of Influence, rather than an independent country. Ukraine shares its borders with both Russia and the EU and it has shown its interest to apply for EU membership in 2024. Ukraine also ambitions to join NATO which has triggered Putin. The European
Union leaders warned Putin of serious consequences if he invades Ukraine and urged him to de-escalate the Russian military build-up near its border with Ukraine. Putin issued various demands on security guarantees to the west to lower the tension between the two nations. The demand includes a ban on Ukraine from entering NATO, and an agreement that NATO will limit the troops and weapons across much of Eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and the Balkan countries. Russia’s intention to employ the military build-up news Ukraine’s is connected to a sense of impunity.
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Will the ongoing Russia Ukraine crisis affect India?
India has shown its concern for the ongoing Russia Ukraine crisis and called for a peaceful resolution.
“We call for a peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond,” said Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for the MEA.
India finds itself in a situation where it has to pick a side. India shares good relations with both Russia and the USA and does not want to deteriorate ties with either of them. Russia happens to be the primary defence partner of India and the Indian defence requirements largely depend on Russian weaponry and equipment. A distorted tie with Russia might affect India’s future defence deals, including the S-400 missile system. The US has warned Putin of sanctions against Russia and India could be a target of the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
The Russia Ukraine crisis is bringing Russia and China even closer, and the increasing tensions on India and China borders will escalate. As the US is more focused on Europe, the attention from the Indo-Pacific strategy is diverted. India might also see an energy crisis along with Europe if Russia cuts the gas supply. India could face multiple economical and political challenges if the Russia Ukraine crisis grows further. India wants to be on the safer side, and a de-escalated crisis would be India’s utmost interest.
